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Courage and Calculated Risk: Why Thinking Twice Leads to Smarter Decisions

True courage isn’t rushing in—it’s knowing when to step back and choose a better path.

Don’t Look Down

Photo by The Chaffins on Unsplash

Hi everyone,

Today, I want to delve into a profound insight from Naval Ravikant, as highlighted in the foreword of The Almanack of Naval Ravikant by Tim Ferriss:

"Naval is one of the smartest people I’ve ever met, and he’s also one of the most courageous. Not in the 'run into the fire without thinking twice' sense, but in the 'think twice and then tell everyone they’re focusing on the wrong fire' sense.

This perspective challenges the conventional notion of courage. It's not about impulsively diving into challenges, but about thoughtfully assessing situations and having the bravery to redirect focus when necessary.

Courage as Calculated Risk

In our fast-paced world, it's tempting to equate courage with immediate action. However, true courage often involves:

  • Critical Thinking: Evaluating the situation thoroughly before acting.

  • Challenging Norms: Questioning existing priorities and being willing to shift focus.

  • Taking Responsibility: Embracing accountability for decisions, even when they deviate from the norm.

Naval emphasizes the importance of accountability in building credibility and achieving success:

"Embrace accountability, and take business risks under your own name. Society will reward you with responsibility, equity, and leverage."

A Personal Reflection

Last year, I made a bold decision to move abroad for my master’s degree, leave my stable job, and start a business—all while supporting my family.

Looking back, I realize these weren’t fully calculated risks. I faced unexpected visa challenges, months of separation from my family, and financial struggles.

I don’t regret the decision, but I’ve learned that bold action needs thoughtful planning. Taking a moment to pause and think could have helped me prepare better for those challenges.

How to Practice Courage with Strategy

Courage is more than just bravery; it’s the wisdom to act with purpose, even in the face of uncertainty.

It’s about taking risks that are intentional, calculated, and aligned with your goals. Acting without reflection might feel bold, but true courage lies in balancing action with thoughtfulness.

Here are five ways to practice courage strategically:

  1. Pause Before Acting:
    Slow down and give yourself the time to reflect on your decisions. Courage doesn’t mean rushing—it means acting with clarity. A moment of stillness can prevent unnecessary mistakes.

  2. Ask the Right Questions:
    Is this the right problem to solve? Are you reacting emotionally or strategically? Challenging your assumptions ensures that you focus on what truly matters.

  3. Take Calculated Risks:
    Assess the risks and rewards of your actions. Think about potential outcomes, and prepare for challenges. Courage isn’t recklessness; it’s boldness paired with preparation.

  4. Start Small, Think Big:
    Courage doesn’t require massive leaps. Start with manageable actions that build momentum and confidence. Scaling wisely allows you to test your limits without overwhelming yourself.

  5. Surround Yourself with Perspective:
    Seek advice from trusted people who can offer honest feedback. Having a sounding board ensures that your courage is tempered with wisdom and insight.

At the end of the day, courage isn’t about rushing forward—it’s about moving forward wisely. It’s about being bold enough to act and wise enough to prepare.

Your Turn

Think about areas in your life where you might be "running into the wrong fire." How can you apply thoughtful courage to reassess and redirect your focus?

📩 Reply to this email or comment below, I’d be glad you hear your thoughts.

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